Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276): Performance in line with expectations Rich progress in R & D pipeline

Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276): Performance in line 杭州桑拿 with expectations Rich progress in R & D pipeline

Event: The company released the quarterly report for 2019, reporting that the combined company realized operating income49.

70,000 yuan, an increase of 28 in ten years.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 11.

900 million, an annual increase of 25.

6%, realized non-net profit attributable to mothers 11.

5 billion, an annual increase of 27.

8%, realized operating cash flow4.

3 ppm, 10-year average of 13.

8%; Comment: The company’s performance is basically in line with our expectations. It has achieved good growth in the income side Q1, while the profit growth rate is lower than the income growth rate, mainly due to the company’s continuous R & D strength in the current period and single quarter R & D expenses.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 56 in ten years.

7%.

Sales of core products, with reference to 西安耍耍网 grassroots research data, we expect Q1 apatinib to grow by 20% -30% in ten years; Butofino and Arixib increase by more than 50%; Pirlotinib and albumin paclitaxel achieve 1More than 100 million sales; 19K sales are expected to reach more than 50 million.

Rich progress has been made in the research and development pipeline, and the development of multiple molecular entities has entered three stages: in the field of tumors, the CDK4 / 6 inhibitor SHR6390 reached an advanced second-line treatment indication for HR + / HER2-, and the PARP inhibitor fluzopaThe implementation of the indications for maintenance treatment of recurrent ovarian cancer has occurred, and clinical progress and progress have been gradually completed. Both have begun to develop second-line treatment indications, and the time required for listing has prompted a significant landing.

In addition, pirlotinib has implemented a new indication for combining herceptin plus chemotherapy for first-line treatment of advanced breast cancer. This is the third indication that pirlotinib is currently expanding. Pirlotinib is also expected to become a domestic HER2-positive breast in the future.The cornerstone drug for cancer treatment; in other areas, Hippocampus uses aplastic indications as registered clinical trials, and through clinical design similar to orphan drugs, the average number of patients and study endpoints required are simplified, and the speed of marketAlso pursue progress.

In addition, new drugs targeting multiple targets such as TIM3, SOST, and KappaR have begun our phase of clinical trials.

Apatinib is a good partner for PD-1, and related clinical studies are constantly enriching.

In addition to the completed global multicenter clinical trials of apatinib combined with carelizumab for advanced first-line treatment of liver cancer, the company recently launched a series of new phase clinical studies, which are phase II for phase IV KRAS mutations.Trials for the treatment of non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer, and a phase III clinical study of PD-1 combined with capecitabine and oxaliplatin sequential PD-1 combined with apatinib for gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer, ApaThe clinical positioning of Teni + Carelizumab is constantly being refined, and PD-1 products are expected to show a wealth of differentiated advantages relative to their counterparts.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations: We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 54.

700 million, 69.

600 million, 87.

100 million US dollars, an increase of 34 each year.

5%, 27.

3% and 25.

0%.

The company is a domestic leader in innovative medicine and is in the period of accelerated performance. We give the company an estimate of 55 to 60 times in 2019, corresponding to a target interval of 68.

2-74.

5 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: the risk of new drug development not meeting expectations; the risk of drug price reduction