Seven major institutions look at the market outlook: February is the “golden pit” on the way to “well-off cattle”
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Anxin strategy: Grasp the “golden pit” and seize strategic opportunities From the perspective of various historical experiences, the epidemic situation is often the core contradiction of the market only during the fastest development period. From the middle, the market is still determined by the endogenous trendrun.
We believe that due to the overall economic activity of the coronary epidemic in the short term, it will also cause a temporary downward shift in the overall market index platform. The market may quickly make up after the holiday to complete the expected adjustment.Neither the trend nor the structure of the main line logic has been disrupted by the coronary epidemic.
The epidemic situation will always pass. We believe that the essence of the market’s fall next week actually brings a “golden pit” of strategic layout, especially the rare opportunity brought by the adjustment of high-quality technology stocks.
Monarch strategy: From another perspective, the epidemic situation is consistent. The development of the epidemic situation that may be needed is an objective fact. The trend of the stock market leads to the expected change of objective events.
The current market consensus expects to move up and down. We believe that: 1) the “down” time will be shorter than expected; 2) the opportunity for transmission is bred during the decline.
The core judgment comes from four perspectives.
Looking back at 2003, as economic growth at that time exceeded the background, hedging policies were limited to structural fiscal subsidies and short-term monetary easing.
At present, more aggressive fiscal and broad accommodative monetary policies will be expected.
Fiscal policies will likely target government sectors such as catering, hotels, tourism, entertainment, civil aviation, highway passenger transport, water passenger transport, and taxis that are boycotted and exempted from government funds and investments in the first and second quarters.
Monetary policy will increase easing based on our original forecast of 2-3 interest rate cuts and 1 RRR cut, at least targeted interest rate cuts and RRR cuts.
Founder’s strategy: In the short term, you can pay attention to the previous strong industries and epidemic prevention-related industries compared to the SARS period. In the short term, you can pay attention to the previous strong industries and epidemic-related industries.
The impact of the SARS epidemic on the economy was limited to the second most severe 2003 outbreak.
Among them, social activities, travel and other activities have weakened, and the growth of sustainable consumption has dropped significantly. Food, beverages, medicines, and daily necessities have interfered with each other. Production depends on falling demand, restrictions on delivery and logistics, and lower production by manufacturers.Obviously, the growth rate of the light industry has fallen relatively.
We divided the SARS epidemic into three periods, namely the latent spread period (November 2002 to mid-April 2003), the accelerated outbreak period (Mid-April 2003 to mid-May 2003) and the recession-dissipation period (2003(Year) (mid May to mid June 2003), the current analogy is the acceleration period of the SARS outbreak. During this period, strong industries such as automobiles, banks, non-banks, steel and epidemic prevention related industries such as medicine, machinery or anti-epidemicweak.
Haitong’s strategy: over 60% of the industry’s annual report has noticeably improved the earlier quarterly results. ① As of January 31, the SME board’s 19 year annual report performance notice replaced 55%, GEM’s 94%, and the SME board’s 19 year annual notice / 19Q3 return to zero.The net profit of the mother gradually exceeded 185% / 2.
5%, the small and medium plate index is 13.
4% / 7.
② GEM’s 19-year annual report notice / 19Q3 net profit attributable to mother gradually changes67.
9%, the GEM index is 17.
6% / 1.
③In the industries with a notice rate exceeding 60%, non-bank financial, electronics, power equipment and new energy, machinery, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and national defense military industry’s 19th annual report has noticeably improved in the earlier three quarterly reports.
Huatai strategy: A-shares are not likely to change their direction. The mainline in the medium term is expected to return. The epidemic affects the short-term A-share rhythm but the probability is not to change direction. The medium-term mainline tends to be “the return of the king.” High-frequency synchronization indicators of market sentiment during the SARS period.The market is out of the trough; industries with five major interaction chains, such as the scale of deployment, population concentration, and population migration, are under pressure to withdraw.
Under the five-point difference between the new coronary epidemic and SARS (internal and external spread, economic functions in severely affected areas, labor input and output, economic cycle and structure, maturity of the interconnected industry), the impact of the 北京夜网 new coronary epidemic on the current economic scale is expectedThe probability of a large amplitude is weaker than the SARS epidemic, but the magnitude of the economic shock in Q1 may not be weaker than during the SARS epidemic.
Considering the pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic assumptions of the epidemic, the A-share profit growth rate has not significantly changed the pre-judgment range in the 2020 annual strategy report, maintaining the index yield, market rhythm, and judgment of the main line of allocation.
CITIC Securities: February is the “golden pit” investment strategy on the way to “well-off bull”: February is the “gold pit” on the way to “well-off bull”.
The outbreak of the epidemic ended the preview of the “well-off cattle” that began last December, but at the same time provided a rare configuration opportunity.
We still continue our annual strategic view. We believe that in the second quarter of the transition, the economy will gradually return to the right track.
The “golden pit” dug by the market in February due to the impact of the epidemic will be the best time for configuration.
Short-term trading and long-term allocation opportunities coexist.
CICC Strategy: The epidemic peak period (Jin Qilin analyst) period is a stabilization of market performance. In the short term, the development of the epidemic situation is still the key to determine the market and asset price trends.
But only at the same time, historical experience also tells us that the simple epidemic itself will not change the decisive factor of the market trend. The difference in performance during the past six epidemics has a great relationship with the macro and market environment.
In addition, the peak of the epidemic may be an important “watershed” in investor sentiment and market performance stabilization.